The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States will return to its pre-pandemic levels in mid-2021, while surpassing its potential in early 2025, according to an analysis published by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) .
The agency explained that its economic growth projections have benefited from the impact of the different stimulus programs that have been applied in the country in recent months. Specifically, the CBO estimates that the US GDP will grow 3.7 % this year, 2.4 % in 2022, 2.3 % in 2023 and 2.2 % in both 2023 and 2025 .
The labor market will not follow the same pace of recovery. The Office estimates that the unemployment rate will return to around 4 % by 2024. “As the economy expands, many people will rejoin the workforce they left during the pandemic, returning to its prepandemic level in 2024.”
According to the horizon of economic estimates of the CBO, the economy will continue to expand between 2026 and 2031 at an average rate of 1.6 %. The forecast is for growth to exceed its potential because the US Federal Reserve is expected to allow inflation to moderately exceed the 2 % target for some time to compensate for previous periods of low inflation.