The World Trade Organization (WTO) Goods Trade Barometer reported that the volume of global goods trade has seen a recovery after a recent contraction. This improvement is mainly attributed to the boost generated by the production and sale of automobiles, as well as the dynamism in the trade of electronic components.
Despite these encouraging signs, the near-term outlook is uncertain due to mixed economic performance and rising geopolitical tensions.
The barometer’s current index stands at 100.7 points, surpassing the previous reading of 99.1 points in August and approaching the reference value of 100. According to the WTO, this suggests that the volume of merchandise trade will gradually return to its trend in the medium term in the second half of 2023, as reported by Bloomberg.
Barometer reveals stability in global merchandise trade
The Merchandise Trade Barometer, a leading indicator that provides real-time information on the trajectory of trade in goods, has shown that the volume of global merchandise trade remained stable in the second quarter of 2023, with a slight increase of 0.2 % compared to the previous quarter, although registering a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%.
Third-quarter trade statistics are anticipated to be slightly stronger thanks to GDP growth in the United States and China, although economic stagnation in the European Union continues to affect global demand.
Despite these challenges, the WTO projects strong year-on-year growth in trade during the fourth quarter, driven by the reduction in trade in the same period last year and pandemic-related disruptions.
These forecasts are in line with WTO estimates from October 5, 2023, which predicted a 0.8% increase in global trade volume.
K. Tovar
Source: Bloomberg
(Reference image source: Ian Taylor, Unsplash)
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