The financial entity Bankinter presented the banking results that reflected the return to the pre Covid-19 business and beat market forecasts, even without taking into account the capital gain obtained by the entity from the breakdown of the insurance direct line business, which amounted to 895.7 million euros, with positive impact on its profit in the first six months of the year, at 1,140 million.
Analysts estimate that the rest of the big banks also show signs of recovery. “We expect Santander, BBVA and CaixaBank to show good results, due to better revenue and cost trends in Europe in the case of Santander. While BBVA and CaixaBank could surprise with better provisions and capital. Sabadell’s results are mixed,” explained Barclays specialists in a recently published report.
Despite the uncertainty that still prevails about the setback that the Delta variant of Covid-19 may entail in the health crisis, improvements are expected in the cost of risk, both in the registered and in the future, of the Spanish entities and “resilience” in capital metrics.
Less provisions and better risk value
According to the opinions of the specialists, the objective will be focused on the evolution of the interest margin, which is pressured by the negative interest rate scenario that has prevailed in the euro zone for years and has lasted longer than expected, as well as in provisions intended to cover credit defaults.
Barclays considers that provisions for “loan defaults will fall 24 % compared to a year earlier in the case of Santander, 18 % in BBVA, 59 % in CaixaBank and 44 % in Sabadell.”
This scenario, with a lower provisioning, impacts on the improvement in the cost of risk observed in recent quarters and will also be reflected in the accounts for the first half of the year, if capital levels remain stable.
According to the analysis by Alvarez & Marsal, the cost of risk for Spanish banks increased threefold last year compared to pre-pandemic levels, to 0.84 %, while in the first quarter of 2021 it fell to 0.56 %.
Specialists also expect good results regarding liquidity. “The general trend will be one of maintenance or some improvement, which in many cases will depend on the regulatory impacts pending to be collected, but which in any case should be offset by the organic generation of capital.”
M. Rodríguez
Source: elespañol.com
