Venezuelan Gross Domestic Product will grow 20 % in 2022

Credit Suisse, a financial services firm, pointed out that they estimate a growth of the real Venezuelan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the order of 20 % for this year, when the previous projection was 4.5 %, as a consequence of the increase in oil prices. These statements were made by the company in the report published on the forecasts of the Venezuelan economy for 2022.

The report notes: “Our forecast for this year is largely based on the expectation that oil GDP will increase by more than 20%. In this sense, it must be taken into account that the average production of Venezuelan oil in 2021 was 550 thousand barrels, therefore, if there is an increase between 100 and 150 thousand barrels, this would imply a growth of around 20 to 25 %”.

On the other hand, they highlight that the IMF’s trade data directorate reports the sustained growth of Venezuela’s imports, achieving some 1,000 million dollars by the end of 2021 and if the trend continues, imports from the South American country “could grow more than 15 % in 2022.”

In the report, the firm also alters the percentage of GDP growth for 2023, placing it at 8 %, from the 3 % it had previously estimated. “These are not typing errors; if we are accurate, these numbers could be among the strongest levels of growth in the entire world.” However, they explain that this growth is not surprising for an economy like the Venezuelan one, which bottomed out in 2020.

Inflation continues to decline

In the recently published report, Credit Suisse also refers to other economic variables such as inflation, which according to its projections will end 2022 in the order of 70 %, when the previous estimate placed it at 150 %.

“This is a positive surprise, considering that Venezuela has registered triple-digit annual inflation since 2015. By 2023, we are forecasting to end inflation of around 50 %, below a previous expectation of 80 %,” the report summarizes.

On the other hand, Credit Suisse, refers to tax revenues, which reached about 1,100 million dollars between January and March and when compared to 2021, it represents an approximate increase of more than 2.2. “Our estimates suggest that dollar tax revenues, which help avoid inflationary distortions, could expand by more than 40 % this year.”

The firm admits that it is too soon to be so optimistic about the recovery of the Venezuelan economy, but there are great possibilities that high oil prices will continue for a long time and “it is yet another reason to feel optimistic about the growth of Venezuela.”

M. Rodríguez

Source: hispanopost.com