The new waves of contagion in Latin America and the Caribbean threaten to frustrate the chances of recovery in several economies in the region, which in an uneven reactivation would not return to levels prior to the crisis until at least 2023.
This was stated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in a new analysis of Latin America and the Caribbean, where, among others, the director of the Fund’s Western Hemisphere Department, Alejandro Werner, was present.
The report stressed that full economic recovery “is still a long way off“. According to the forecasts made by the IMF, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Latin America will not return to pre-pandemic levels until at least 2023, while the GDP per capita will do so in 2025, later than other regions of the world.
“The crisis has had a disproportionate impact on employment and the losses have been concentrated above all in women, youth and informal and less-skilled workers, and social indicators are showing this,” the IMF detailed.
The analysis notes that regional economies began to reverse the initial economic devastation left by the epidemic. Thus, after a strong contraction in the second quarter of 2020, a strong rebound was observed in the third quarter, which even exceeded expectations in Brazil, Peru and Argentina.
In this context, manufacturing recovered faster than services, while exports returned to pre-crisis levels and consumption and investment lagged further.