Oil companies worldwide have reported substantial profits during the first quarter and first half of the year, with cautious expectations given the Middle East conflict.

Regional scenario: Latin America and the United States

Brazilian company Petrobras reported a daily average of 3.281 million barrels of oil and natural gas in the first half of the year, equivalent to 15.1% more than the same period in 2025.

Venezuelan oil company PDVSA reported accumulated revenues of $9.4 billion from January to May. Meanwhile, the refining subsidiary Citgo Petroleum closed its first quarter of 2026 with a net profit of $157 million.

The Argentine company YPF reported a net profit of $409 million and an operating profit of $878 million, in addition to achieving a record adjusted EBITDA for a first quarter of $1.594 billion, thanks to higher international prices and efficiency in Vaca Muerta.

The US-based Chevron reported net profits of $2.2 billion and adjusted profits of $2.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026. ConocoPhillips reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.89 and total revenue of approximately $15.36 billion in the same period.

Europe and Asia

Repsol (Spain) reported earnings of €2.201 billion in the first half of this year, a 265% increase, for a net profit of €2.711 billion.

Italy’s Eni reported earnings of €4.390 billion from January to June, a 156 % increase compared to the €1.715 billion reported for the same period last year.

Finnish oil company Neste reported a net profit of €1.298 billion in the first half of the year.

British Shell reported $6.9 billion in earnings for the first quarter and a net profit of $5.694 billion.

Saudi Aramco, for its part, posted an adjusted net profit of $33.6 billion from January to March, representing a year-on-year increase of 25 % to 26 % compared to the same period in 2025.

PetroChina also reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 48.333 billion yuan (approximately $7.07 billion) in the first quarter of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 1.9 %.

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Brazil sent specialized oil drilling equipment to Venezuela aboard the vessel MV BBC RIO, which was received at berth 5 of the Port of Guanta, in Anzoátegui State, in eastern Venezuela.

Venezuela received 271 pieces of cargo with components for crude oil drilling, weighing 2,147.95 tons. A 40-foot container with 17.70 tons of supplies for the energy sector was also received.

At the port of arrival, the equipment was moved to meet the needs of the industry in Venezuela.

Buque procedente de Brasil descarga en Guanta componentes clave para la industria petrolera

Leer más➡️ https://t.co/ClHniZJxo9

— VTV CANAL 8 (@VTVcanal8) July 19, 2026

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a drop in global oil consumption this year. This would be the first decline in this sector since the Covid-19 pandemic.

According to the agency, for the rest of 2026 global oil consumption will be reduced due to what is happening in the Middle East, with peace negotiations between the United States and Iran that are interrupted by armed events.

“The beginning of the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran seemed to give a momentary respite to the hydrocarbon industry, considering the constant rise in the price of a barrel since the beginning of the war in the Persian Gulf. However, the new escalation of hostilities between both nations once again distorted expectations regarding the future of the market.”

Projections for the oil sector in 2027

In addition to pointing out a drop in global crude oil consumption this year of 1,000,000 barrels per day, by 2027 it foresees a recovery and increase to 2,000,000 bpd.

Given the difficulty of achieving a lasting peace agreement and the armed clashes in the Persian Gulf last week, the normalization of oil markets is in doubt.

In June, after the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the barrel of Brent fell “from $98 to a minimum of $70. The return of the attacks interrupted this decline in prices, which reached $78 in July.”

The agency has indicated that in June global oil supply increased by 4.1 million barrels per day, to 98.8 million in response to “the partial reopening of transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, production remained at about 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.” Exports from the region also increased from 6.5 million barrels per day to 16.1 million.

Although the agency estimates that there may be a surplus in the oil market towards the end of the current year, “it assured that the forecast is based” on the assumption that oil tanker flows through the strait will gradually recover, allowing producers to restart fields and refineries in the Middle East and elsewhere to resume shipments of products.

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The energy ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman approved increasing crude oil production to 188,000 barrels per day starting in August.

This is the organization’s fifth consecutive increase, amid the ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, and is a response to the need to stabilize the international market.

The production increases approved by OPEC+ since April have remained largely unimplemented, largely due to the conflict in Iran and despite the recent peace agreement reached with the United States.

The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had a devastating impact on regional and international negotiations, and fuel costs have risen drastically, directly affecting the cost of living for citizens.

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Limited damage to Venezuela’s oil, gas, and refining infrastructure was reported following the earthquakes of June 24.

According to Reuters, “most of the country’s major producing regions, refineries, pipelines, and terminals are located far from the affected cities. However, the power outage has raised concerns about whether oil production can be maintained at its pre-earthquake level of approximately 1.2 million barrels per day, according to sources,” the news outlet reported.

The Paraguaná refining complex continued operating at the same level as before the earthquakes, according to workers. No major damage was reported in the Orinoco Oil Belt or western Venezuela.

“Major international energy companies stated that their projects were operational.” However, Pequiven and PDVSA have not provided information on the status of their operations.

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A new set of licenses was announced by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on June 10. The resolutions expand and update the authorizations for energy and mining operations related to the country.

Licenses 46C, 47A, 48B, 50B, 51B, 52A, and 54A immediately supersede the previous versions published between February and March of this year.

“Among the most relevant changes, OFAC authorized new operations related to the export, marketing, and transportation of Venezuelan oil and petrochemical products to the United States.”

According to the announcement, the benefit covers U.S. companies established before January 29, 2025. “License 50B also ratified permits for transnational corporations such as Chevron, Repsol, Shell, BP, Eni, and Maurel & Prom for activities related to the Venezuelan oil and gas sector.”

On the other hand, license 47A authorizes the export of diluents to Venezuela, and license 48B authorizes the “supply of technology, software, equipment, and services for oil, petrochemical, and electrical projects within the country.”

In the mining sector, operations related to Venezuelan minerals, including gold, are being made more flexible through licenses 51B and 54A, which will allow the export, transport, processing, and supply of goods linked to mining activities under strict oversight mechanisms and periodic reporting.

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The Italian oil company Eni presented a report last week reflecting a debt of $3.3 billion owed by Venezuela’s state-owned PDVSA to the firm. This comes amidst negotiations between Venezuela and the United States regarding oil and the easing of sanctions in this sector.

Eni’s annual report, which includes data up to the end of 2025, also includes “approximately $1 billion in accrued interest.”

To put this information in context, it’s important to note that Eni and the Spanish company Repsol produce gas at their jointly owned Perla offshore field — the only active offshore gas project in Venezuela — whose production is purchased by PDVSA primarily for national electricity generation.

PDVSA has not made the corresponding payments for these gas volumes, accumulating a multimillion-dollar debt with Eni and Repsol, who were unable to receive in-kind payments from PDVSA due to the tightening of US sanctions.

Although the situation has improved since the beginning of this year, the debt persists. However, Eni has indicated that it is in talks with US authorities regarding its potential participation in the reactivation of the Venezuelan oil sector.

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The projections of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru regarding the country’s annual inflation rate place the figure at 2.4 %. This was indicated last week by the president of the regulatory body, Julio Velarde, adding that the gross domestic product is estimated at 3.2 % for 2026.

According to the BCRP official, who made the statements during the presentation of the March Inflation Report, indicating that “it will register a temporary spike in prices due to fuel rationing and the international impact of the conflict in Iran on oil.”

Velarde anticipates a significant impact from the increase in gas and fuel prices, as well as food prices, “given the high weighting of the food basket in the Peruvian price index.”

The rise in international oil prices directly impacts transportation costs, in addition to “key inputs for food production, such as grains and chicken.”

In this context, the president of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) “highlighted that Peru maintains the lowest inflation in the region and that the projection for 2027 is 2 %, within the target range.”

Regarding GDP growth, Velarde specified that, although it will be lower than last year’s, it will be above the previous projection, which in December stood at 3 %.

In conclusion, “the BCRP estimates GDP growth of 3.2 % in 2026 and 2027, accompanied by a rebound in private investment of 9.5 % in 2026 and 5 % in 2027.”

Finally, the official addressed the public debt, estimating that it will reach 29.3 % of GDP, with an increase in current spending.

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The Middle East conflict has repercussions at both the regional and global levels. The increase in oil prices has spread to the gas and fuel sectors, prompting the European Union to prepare contingency measures to minimize the effects on consumers.

The EU is streamlining procedures for importing non-Russian gas amidst the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has impacted supply. This has led to more flexible requirements, reduced red tape, and faster response times from authorities.

Currently, the United States, Africa, and Qatar are considered potential alternatives for importing liquefied natural gas.

There are specific initiatives in the region, such as in Italy, where Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced a reduction of €0.25 per liter of fuel to alleviate the effects of price increases caused by the war. The measure was approved by the Council of Ministers through a decree-law.

Spain, for its part, is reportedly evaluating similar options; that is, reducing taxes, offering incentives for consumption, “eliminating the CO₂ price, or returning to the ‘Iberian exception’ or a cap on gas prices,” according to European media.

Although the International Energy Agency has stated that member countries can release more oil onto the market, France does not share this view. Finance Minister Roland Lescure has indicated that the country cannot replace lost flows with existing reserves.

In any case, the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are being felt globally, with price increases in oil, gas, electricity, and fuels, forcing governments to scramble to find alternatives not only for supply but also to minimize the impact on the population.

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The Senior Vice President of the US oil company ExxonMobil, Jack Williams, indicated last week that the company is considering sending a technical team to Venezuela to study the conditions for a possible return to the country.

The executive stated that this decision “will depend on the investment environment and the establishment of solid and lasting legal guarantees that protect assets and invested capital.”

Exxon could send the team in the coming weeks, once the necessary logistical and security preparations for the visit are completed. In this regard, Williams stated that “the corporation is in talks with Venezuelan authorities while evaluating the conditions for a possible resumption of operations.”

The oil company’s position is cautious regarding new investments in Venezuela, and for this reason, it requires “solid and lasting legal protection mechanisms before committing capital again.”

The shift in relations between the United States and Venezuela is one of the factors that has encouraged the oil company to consider restarting activities in the South American country to contribute to its energy development and growth.

 

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