Oil demand will recover by 2023
The projections issued by the International Energy Agency determined that the global requirement will return to pre-Covid-19 numbers within two years
Global oil demand will not recover the levels observed before the pandemic until 2023, according to projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA), who warned about the possibility that the oil market “never returns to normal” before the impact of new work and transportation habits, the growing adoption of the electric car and the energy transition.
According to new medium-term projections from the Paris-based agency, global oil demand in 2020 will stand at 96.5 million barrels per day (mb / d), compared to 91 mb / d estimated for 2020, with a drop of almost 9 mb / d compared to 99.7 mb / d in 2019, a level of consumption that will not be exceeded until 2023, when the IEA forecasts a demand of 101.2 mb / d.
However, in the absence of more intense political intervention and more profound changes in consumer behaviors, longer-term growth drivers will continue to push oil demand higher in the coming years. So, by 2026 the IEA it expects global oil consumption to reach 104.1 mb / d, which would represent an increase of 4.4 mb / d from 2019 levels.
“All of this growth in demand relative to 2019 is expected to come from emerging and developing economies, supported by increasing populations and incomes,” the IEA stresses, noting that Asian demand for crude will continue to grow strongly. While “demand from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is not expected to return to pre-crisis levels.”
Specifically, in the case of the OECD, the agency warns that it is possible that the level of oil consumption of 47.7 mb / d prior to the pandemic will never recover, since by 2023 it estimates that it will be about 46 , 2 mb / d and for 2026, the horizon of its projections, it will be 45.8 mb / d.
“The Covid-19 crisis caused a historic drop in world demand for oil, but not necessarily lasting”, said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, for whom without the introduction of major changes in government policies, as well as in consumer behavior, world oil demand will increase every year until 2026.”
K. Tovar
Source: Eleconomista
