Mike Bloomberg can get the Democratic nomination in the US elections
The communication strategy of the former mayor of New York focuses on confronting Donald Trump, explains psychologist and political analyst Vladimir Gessen
Donald Trump will undoubtedly be the candidate of the Republican Party in the presidential elections of 2020. In the case of the Democratic Party, one of the scenarios is that Mike Bloomberg can win the presidential nomination to face President Trump. If he succeeds, after reaching the Democratic nomination, Bloomberg could put into play a presidential ticket that puts Donald Trump in trouble, especially if that ticket goes to Vice President Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton.
There are 11 candidates of the Democratic Party who have served, but only three of them – according to the average of the polls – exceed 14% of the votes of the Democrats until February 12. Bernie Sanders with 23%, Joe Biden with 19.2%, and Michael Bloomberg, with 14.2%. Fourth place is in decline, Elizabeth Warren with 12.4%.
This shows that after so many debates – in which Bloomberg did not participate – none of the candidates evaluated for this moment reach a percentage higher than 25%. So far, Sanders has managed to lead the original group of candidates, but with greater rejection than acceptance within the Democratic world.
Meanwhile, in a very short time, Bloomberg has obtained the third position without having taken place in the debates, nor in the primaries held so far, and will not participate until the “supe Tuesday”, on March 3. Bloomberg expects to be on second place for these elections if he does not achieve the first position in the event.
That day, Democrats vote in 14 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia, including California and Texas. These last two provide 643 delegates, for a total of 1,357 delegates. There would be two decisive states like Florida, on March 17, and New York on April 28, and the other states to be decided.
There are 3,979 delegates plus 700 “super-delegates” who are not conditioned by the polls, or by the followers of the different candidates and, therefore, can tip the vote towards either of the two candidates with the greatest choice… to make him the winner.
Bloomberg’s communication strategy focuses on confronting Donald Trump, not the other Democratic candidates, and convincing Americans of “we can do it,” as one of his slogans points out. Given the massive campaign that Bloomberg is conducting, he is already placed in simulated general election polls with 49.8% in its favor against 43.8% of Donald Trump. For Super Tuesday, this will allow participants to indicate that it is the best option – and perhaps the only one – to defeat the current president.
It is not foreseeable that for Super Tuesday Joe Biden rebound in the downturn he keeps in the polls. Biden’s followers, therefore, will be tempted to support Bloomberg to defeat Sanders, and Biden as well. If Warren continues to fall, he can negotiate with Bloomberg his support given the controversies he has with Sanders.
Also, to prevent the Democratic Party from advancing to the course that would mean the candidacy of Sanders, the great voters like Barack and Michelle Obama, or the Clintons, would eventually support Mike Bloomberg, with whom both factors have close relations. It is important to stress that Bloomberg was mayor 12 years after 9/11 and he was very close to the Clintons, and supported the presidency of Barack Obama. The support of Biden, the Clintons and the Obama would represent almost all of the superdelegates.
If Bloomberg, who intends to win on super Tuesday, only gets second place, he would be unstoppable anyway since he would become Sanders’ alternative, and would bring together all those who do not want the socialist as the flag bearer.
Thus, he can win or tie in the other states for the primary elections. Taking into consideration that he will achieve a resounding victory in New York, and in Florida, which have the largest number of delegates, plus those obtained by Bloomberg himself, most of the superdelegates will finally give him the victory.
After reaching the Democratic nomination Bloomberg could settle a presidential ticket that puts Donald Trump in trouble, especially if that ticket goes to Vice President Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton.
Taken and with information from Informe21 / Análisis de Vladimir Gessen