Within the framework of the event, What will the Venezuelan outcome be?, which analysts José A. Gil Yépez (Datanalisis), José Manuel Puente (IESA), Ibrahim Velutini (Intelinvest) and Eduardo Fortuny (Dynamics Venezuela) took part as speakers. held in Caracas, contributions and suggestions were made to the current and complex economic-political scenario, and its perspective.
“Venezuela has stopped receiving 720 billion dollars for oil revenues because of bad public policies of the national government,” explained Ibrahim Velutini, economist and CEO of Intelinvest.
During his presentation, the analyst explained the problems involved in debt in terms of interest on oil bonds -26 in total- that represent more than 2,400 million dollars, already due, so he expressed his concern about this, especially in the month before the presidential elections of May 20. “It’s an urgent matter and one of great concern.”
In this same context, the president of Datanalisis, José A. Gil Yepes, considers that this year “it is not feasible to sustain PDVSA’s rentier model and its hegemony”, for which it proposes that Venezuela become a “pluralistic and productive society” “
According to figures mentioned by the IESA economist, José Manuel Puente, oil represents between 95 to 96% of the country’s exports, but the situation is currently complicated by a production that gradually declined to 1,480,000 barrels reported, when the decade of the eighties, exceeded 3.5 million.
Sovereign Bolivar
“Monetary reconversion was inevitable. Obviously they had to remove three zeros from the currency because it was no longer possible to print a greater number of bills because of hyperinflation, which made it very necessary”, says Velutini.
“The problem with the monetary reconversion are the times in which it is being managed. If you think it’s possible to take all those ‘old’ bills, replace them with new ones in a million square kilometers nationwide, it’s a truly titanic task. “
On the other hand, José Puente pointed out that, compared to the fifth consecutive year of recession facing Venezuela, it is difficult … “it is impossible to move forward with the new monetary cone” for June of this year, arguing that currently the notes in existence are not enough to satisfy the population, falling short because of inter-monthly inflation.
“There is a great disproportion in terms of paper money, 100% of the total banknotes of the country, 41% corresponds to 100 bolivars, with which nothing is practically bought, while the largest denomination (100,000) bs) only represents 0.3%, “says Puente.
“Only ATMs need at least two months in terms of programming and calibration,” says Velutini, in terms of time.
But, beyond the lapses estimated by the national government for the circulation of the new currency, the director of Intelinvest considers that the main problem lies in the monetary liquidity of the country, which is currently calculated below 4%, when the minimum desirable in a stable economy exceeds 12%, so it warns that if the conversion is not programmed correctly can make the situation even worse.
Political disposition
“If there is not a political and vision change, there can not be an economic change, because by not having trained political actors, it is impossible to reconfigure the country’s debt,” said Puente.
As part of the day the engineer Eduardo Fortuny, of Dynamics Venezuela, exposed his economic and political analysis of the situation, reviewing the hyperinflationary phenomenon, its evolution, comparisons and projections, where the political, economic and social, go hand in hand, becoming decisive factors of the first magnitude for the future of the nation.
“The exchange control is one of the issues to be corrected, it is necessary to establish clear rules. With the external debt, agreements must be reached with governments of other countries because Venezuela, to this day, can not solve its problems on its own, “says and argued Ibrahim Velutini.
“The most important thing would be for the national government to achieve the understanding of reaching a macroeconomic agreement with all sectors. The real solutions and solutions to problems or economic issues are there”, reflects and recommends the CEO of Intelinvest.
Source: Doble Llave.
