The crypto ecosystem continues to feed on the projections of analysts on the possible value of bitcoin in the first months of 2025.

An expert has launched the idea that the price of BTC in the first months of next year would be $100,000, although he warned of the difficulty of maintaining it above such a figure.

For his part, the businessman, author and expert trader Robert Kiyosaki, has launched his prediction, placing the value of bitcoin at $250,000 next year, but not before indicating: “We have to try to forget what bitcoin was initially and promote it for what it has the potential to become.”

Kiyosaki sees bitcoin as an important resource to “combat the devaluation of fiat currency and navigate the turbulent seas of global economic uncertainty.”

His concern about the weakness of the dollar and financial instability around the world underpins his recommendation to invest in gold or silver and cryptocurrencies.

M.Pino

Source: cripto247

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The World Trade Organization established the projections for world trade growth for 2024 and 2025, placing them at 2.7 % and 3 %, respectively.

According to the international institution, it has established the estimates taking into account destabilizing factors such as the increase in geopolitical tensions and economic policies, in addition to inflation and the reduction of interest rates in the different regions.

“World merchandise trade is set to rise by 2.7 % this year, after a 1.1 % decline in 2023, which would mean a recovery pace slightly higher than the 2.6 % projected last April by the World Trade Organization (WTO).”

On inflation, a factor that increases distrust in the world’s economies, the WTO stresses that by mid-2024 it had fallen enough “to allow central banks to begin lowering interest rates, adding that lower inflation should increase household real income and encourage consumer spending, while lower interest rates should increase business investment.”

However, it is forward-looking and warns that “divergent monetary policies among major economies could lead to financial volatility and changes in capital flows, as central banks reduce interest rates, which could make debt service more difficult, particularly for poorer economies.”

The organization is optimistic but alert, according to the director general of the WTO, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, regarding possible setbacks that may arise from the worsening of regional wars, such as those in the Middle East.

She stressed that since the creation of the organization, three decades ago, per capita income in middle- and low-income economies has almost tripled, so in her opinion it is necessary to continue “working collectively to guarantee global economic stability and sustained growth, since they are essential to improve the well-being of people around the world.”

The WTO has detailed that the short-ter short-t m outlook for trade in services is more positive than for goods, “with an 8 % year-on-year growth in dollars in trade in commercial services during the first quarter of 2024.”

M.Pino

Source: americaeconomia

(Reference image source: Amira El Fohail en Unsplash)

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The projections of the Goldman Sachs company on the countries that could make up the top world powers for 2050 and 2075 include South American nations, taking into account various factors that affect the comprehensive development of communities, such as the investment that governments make in the economy, education, services, medical care, security and defense.

According to the Global Economy report published at the beginning of 2023, carried out by the leading firm in the area of ​​investment banking, and called “The road to 2075: size and opportunities of the capital market”, South America is a region of great potential, and Brazil (Colombia, Argentina and Peru are not overlooked) would occupy eighth place in the top ten along with the United States.

“The empire of a nation as an emerging market is consolidated from the purchasing power capitalized in the privatization of corporate assets,” the report states. In this sense, there is a South American nation that is currently positioned as a potential world power on a list of 104 countries until the year 2050 and also 2075.

Goldman Sachs concluded that “the power of the planet will be in the hands of 3 recognized giants in terms of the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of each one, while Brazil stands within the Top 10 along with the United States as the state of the subregion. which will grow considerably with a total of $8.7 billion.”

It shows that the country will be ranked eighth on the list and will also maintain that same position 25 years later. It will maintain its leadership “for 2050, 2050 and 2075, along with others that would be added as pleasant surprises as an emerging market.”

Brazil among the main economic powers in the world towards 2050 and 2075

The Goldman Sachs study prepared on June 8, 2023, includes data on countries that “universally would be world powers in the next almost 30 years, taking into account various factors such as potential GDP growth.”

Above Brazil, China would be in first place by both 2050 and 2075. The remaining eight nations would be:

Top Ten towards 2050

1- China

2- United States

3- India

4- Indonesia

5- Germany

6- Japan

7- United Kingdom

8- Brazil

9- France

10- Russia

Top Ten around 2075

1- China

2- India

3- United States

4- Indonesia

5- Nigeria

6- Pakistan

7- Egypt

8- Brazil

9- Germany

10- United Kingdom

The top five will be the world’s largest economies in 2050 as they “combine our GDP estimates with our long-term real exchange rate projections to project the real value of the US dollar for major economies over time.”

Among the criteria considered by Goldman Sachs for a nation like those listed above are “political leadership, economic growth, military strength, alliances with other nations and global influence that includes the ability to exercise authority and dominance over the rest of the territories.”

Given that the projections of the leading firm in the investment banking sector are long-term, which may raise doubts, it is appropriate to highlight that this is, as the firm indicates, an analytical work that “inevitably involves a considerable degree of risk and uncertainty”, where one of the advantages offered “is related to cyclical risk which, as an important source of short-term forecast errors, tends to reverse over time.”

M.Pino

Source: elcomercio.pe

(Main reference image: Raphael Nogueira in Unsplash)

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The Fed’s cut projections for 2024 and 2025 could be affected by the current variations in inflation in the United States.

According to a group of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, “the recent spike in inflation is unlikely to change Federal Reserve (known as the Fed) members’ projections of three interest rate cuts this year and four next year. 2025.”

A significant number of the 49 specialists surveyed between March 8 and 13 “believe that Fed officials foresee three or more cuts in 2024, while more than a third expect two or fewer.”

It is important to note that “the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will keep rates in the range of 5.25 % to 5.5 % for the fifth consecutive meeting” this week, and the first-rate reduction will take place in the month of June.

For his part, the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, and his colleagues will be analyzing their economic and rate projections at the meeting today, March 19, and tomorrow, March 20, for the first time since December. The specialists surveyed consider that only small adjustments are made to what they already have estimated.

However, they venture to point out that the United States monetary authorities “will revise upward their forecasts for 2024 for the gross domestic product of the United States, from an annual rate of 1.4 % to 1.7 %, and will raise their projection inflation from 2.4 % to 2.5 %.”

M.Pino

Source: finanzasdigital

(Reference image source: Aditya Vyas on Unsplash)

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The Colombian Government has released its calculations regarding the expected increase in the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year, setting the estimates between 1.8% and 2%, as reported by Europa Press on August 17, 2023.

These data arise amid a period of economic slowdown, previously anticipated by institutions such as the Colombian Central Bank. According to the provided figures, the GDP for the second semester has experienced only a modest increase of 0.3% annually.

The Colombian Minister of Finance and Public Credit, Ricardo Bonilla, has mentioned the possibility of an “economic recovery scenario” in the second semester, pointing to the gradual reduction of inflation as one of the key factors.

Bonilla has also announced that the inflation target for the year-end is 9.2% year-on-year. However, the July data, according to the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), indicates that the price index has remained at 11.78%, exceeding the established target.

The Colombian Government’s projections are supported by various international organizations. The World Bank forecasts a growth of 1.7%, while the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) takes a more cautious perspective, with an estimated increase of 1.2%.

In response to the threat of economic deceleration, Minister Bonilla has directly urged the country’s central bank to lower interest rates, which currently stand at 13.25%.

As of now, the Bank of the Republic, under the leadership of Leonardo Villar, has not set a date to implement the first cut in interest rates. Although it’s recognized that the fight against inflation is not over, the minutes from the last meeting indicated that the bank would prefer to “maintain the current restrictive stance” in monetary policy until observing solid signals of inflation convergence towards the established target.

K. Tovar

Source: Cointelegraph

(Reference image source: Flavia Carpio, Unsplash)

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