The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts an increase in global oil production of 800,000 barrels per day in 2026, thanks to the prominent role of Argentina, Brazil, and Guyana: three non-OPEC countries that will contribute an average of 400,000 barrels per day.

This projection has not gone unnoticed by the United States, which is currently focusing on South American nations in terms of crude oil supply for this year.

The IEA has stated: “Global crude oil production has been driven by non-OPEC countries, which will increase by 800,000 barrels per day in 2026, with Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina accounting for 400,000 barrels per day of global growth.”

In the case of Brazil, the agency projects a significant increase in crude oil production thanks to the operation of “new floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) units designed to exploit deepwater oil resources,” with projects such as the Bacalhau field, developed by the Norwegian company Equinor. This year, it could reach 4 million barrels per day by 2026.

Guyana “stands out for having increased its production tenfold between 2020 and 2025, reaching an average of 750,000 barrels per day,” thanks to discoveries in the Stabroek offshore block, operated by the consortium led by Exxon Mobil, in collaboration with Chevron and the China National Offshore Petroleum Corporation (CNOOC). By last November, production had risen above 900,000 barrels, according to the Department of Energy agency.

“Finally, the EIA focuses its attention on the Argentine case, particularly on the shale oil formation in Vaca Muerta, where the US model employing fracking or hydraulic fracturing technology is being adopted.”

M.Pino

Source: elinformador

(Reference image source: Gerhard Crous on Unsplash)      

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The International Energy Agency’s forecasts for global oil supply at the end of 2025 and for 2026 were raised to 3.1 million and 2.5 million barrels per day, respectively.

This is reflected in the IEA’s recent report on this market, confirming the increase in its forecasts for both periods regarding global supply.

The agency “notes that in 2026, total oil supply will be 4.09 million barrels per day higher than total demand, compared to an implied surplus of 3.97 million barrels per day in its last monthly report.”

Furthermore, it emphasized the market imbalance, arguing that “global oil supply continues to increase while oil demand growth remains modest compared to historical standards.”

Regarding which countries will be at the top of global growth by the end of 2025, it mentioned the United States, China, and Nigeria.

M.Pino

Source: elperiodicodelaenergia

(Reference image source: HIKARU on Unsplash)

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At a meeting on September 5, the member countries of the OPEC+ alliance agreed to postpone for two months the increase in oil supply scheduled for October.

According to a statement, the decision was made at a meeting of the sector ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.

“The eight participating countries have agreed to extend their additional voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day for two months, until the end of November 2024,” according to the statement.

The voluntary reduction in crude oil extraction was agreed several years ago with the aim of “stabilizing international prices of the so-called black gold, whose quotations are registering increasing levels of volatility due to geopolitical tensions and conflicts.”

The OPEC+ statement indicates that member countries “previously announced additional voluntary cuts in April and November 2023 (…), emphasizing their collective determination to ensure full compliance with voluntary production adjustments.”

By collective will, the organization establishes quotas for its members as part of an agreement, “which currently exempts Iran, Libya and Venezuela. In addition, several partners apply additional voluntary cuts.”

M.Pino

Source: Prensa Latina

(Reference image source: Documerica in Unsplash)

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