The International Energy Agency’s forecasts for global oil supply at the end of 2025 and for 2026 were raised to 3.1 million and 2.5 million barrels per day, respectively.

This is reflected in the IEA’s recent report on this market, confirming the increase in its forecasts for both periods regarding global supply.

The agency “notes that in 2026, total oil supply will be 4.09 million barrels per day higher than total demand, compared to an implied surplus of 3.97 million barrels per day in its last monthly report.”

Furthermore, it emphasized the market imbalance, arguing that “global oil supply continues to increase while oil demand growth remains modest compared to historical standards.”

Regarding which countries will be at the top of global growth by the end of 2025, it mentioned the United States, China, and Nigeria.

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Source: elperiodicodelaenergia

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that oil demand will continue to rise. In this context, production is expected to continue at this upward pace, reaching 5.8 million barrels per day, with a quarter coming from Argentina, Brazil, and Guyana.

According to the agency, global oil production will increase this decade due to demand for the product, “although it may seem counterintuitive in the midst of the climate change crisis affecting the world.”

In this oil boom, countries like Venezuela, Ecuador, Mexico, and Colombia would be displaced by other emerging countries: Brazil, Guyana, and, to a lesser extent, Argentina, which are emerging as leaders in “a new chapter in the region’s oil production.”

In Guyana’s case, it entered the oil market in 2015, when “the US oil giant ExxonMobil discovered the first of its proven crude oil reserves, estimated at around 11 billion barrels, in the depths of the Atlantic Ocean.” According to the IEA, the country, once the poorest in the region, would surpass Kuwait.

For its part, Brazil is also gaining strength from underwater discoveries. “Under three kilometers of water and five more kilometers of rock and salt, the country extracts crude oil from one of the largest offshore oil fields in the world.” These discoveries made the country the largest oil producer in Latin America in 2017.

According to the IEA, Argentina would rank third in the new regional oil boom, taking into account the gigantic Vaca Muerta field in the northwest of the country, which has the “second-largest shale gas resources in the world and the fourth-largest shale oil resources.”

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According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) oil supply forecasts for 2025, the figures will be favorable.

Despite the impact on the sector of low demand from China, the agency “increased its forecast for growth in global oil demand for 2025 to 1.1 million barrels per day, from 990,000 bpd” in November.

This measure is in addition to the three-month delay, until April of this year, by OPEC+ in the start of the increase in oil production and extended by one year, until the end of 2026.

For 2025, the IEA’s outlook “points to an excess supply of 950,000 barrels of oil per day, even excluding the return to higher production quotas.”

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On December 5, the First Global Energy and Artificial Intelligence Summit will take place in Paris to analyze the increase in electricity consumption generated by the development and application of artificial intelligence.

This was recently indicated by the director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, who has highlighted the worrying nature of this increase in this sector, considering that electricity consumption is already high in the world.

According to the latest IEA report, “which predicts energy consumption for 2026, it anticipates that by that year, data center consumption will be more than 1,000 terawatt-hours. To give us an idea, it is the equivalent consumption of all of Japan.”

They establish as a point of comparison the global consumption of data centers in 2022, which stood at 460 TWh, approximately 2 % of all electrical energy in use.

When compared with the demand for cryptocurrency mining, they indicate that about 160 TWh will be consumed by 2026 and a growth of more than 40 % is estimated in that field. Therefore, “it continues to fall far short of the expected impact for AI.”

Personalities such as Elon Musk, from Tesla, and Sam Altman, from OpenAI, have pointed out that electricity consumption in AI is something never seen before and that an energy shortage could be faced. For her part, Jennifer Granholm, Secretary of Energy of the United States, raised the possibility of using nuclear energy to confront artificial intelligence.

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