Asdrúbal Oliveros, managing partner of Ecoanalítica, indicated that Venezuela’s trade sector experienced 1.1 % growth during the first six months of the year.

According to the economist, “the oil sector, the traditional engine of the economy, led the expansion with an increase of 14.8 %. Meanwhile, telecommunications grew 11 %, food 7 %, and health, which includes the production of medicines, 6 %.”

According to the director of Ecoanalítica, this is a notable performance in the trade sector thanks to the fact that “it was one of the beneficiaries of the economic reconfiguration following the 2016-2021 crisis,” when the country lost two-thirds of its economy.

Currently, according to Oliveros, there is a marked disparity in the trade landscape, as on the one hand, areas such as food, medicine, and automotive parts are performing well, while in items such as household appliances, clothing, and footwear, growth is weak as a result of the population’s low purchasing power and macroeconomic instability.

Regarding inflation, the specialist indicated that “the modest growth in trade is due in part to accelerated inflation in the first half of the year and a significant depreciation of the official exchange rate, which limits household consumption, especially for non-essential goods.”

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Economist Asdrúbal Oliveros, managing partner of Ecoanalítica, recently indicated in a radio interview that foreign currency transactions in Venezuela have decreased to 16 %, while 84 % are made in bolivars, the local currency.

According to Oliveros, “We are currently at the lowest level of foreign currency use in Venezuela.” He emphasized that “the aggregate of all currencies is 15.8% of the total. 84 % of transactions are being used in bolivars and 16 % in foreign currency.”

He mentioned that, according to a recent study by Ecoanalítica, Caracas, the country’s capital, concentrates 93 % of transactions in bolivars, leaving only 7 % in foreign currency.

The city of Mérida, in the Andean region, follows closely behind, “with 91% in bolivars and 9% in foreign currency.” However, the situation is slightly different in cities like Maracaibo and Margarita, where foreign currency transactions are, respectively, at 24% and almost 49%.

Oliveros stated that foreign currency transactions are made “86 % in cash, 2 % with international cards, and the remainder is marginal.” According to the study, there is also a marked reduction in cash in dollars in the country, with a 37% drop in the stock.

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Recent data from Ecoanalítica show that more than 75 % of transactions in Venezuela are made in bolivars.

The partner director of the survey, Asdrúbal Oliveros, revealed these data in a graph that summarizes the payment ecosystem in the country.

The Colombian peso, which is used mostly in border states such as Táchira, is followed by transactions in euros, “which represented 3.1 % of the total, and, finally, cryptocurrencies and others, which made up 1.8 % of payments.”

Regarding payments in dollars, Oliveros indicated that since they have been carrying out this comparison (2021), it is the first time “that the level of transactions in foreign currency is the lowest.”

The 2024 study was carried out in “Caracas, Barquisimeto, Maracaibo, Valencia, Margarita, Puerto Ordaz, Lechería, Mérida, San Cristóbal and Maracay, where almost 70 % of the activities are concentrated.” Oliveros highlighted that there has been a drop of more than 40 percentage points in payments in dollars, partly due to the fact that citizens give preference to exchanging the currency in the market at the most convenient price.

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Venezuela’s labor sector remains waiting for the salary increase on May 1. In this regard, economist Asdrúbal Oliveros, director of Ecoanalítica, declared this Wednesday that this could happen through bonuses.

He indicated that in the midst of the campaign for the presidential elections on July 28, the Venezuelan government could show greater capacity to assume a salary increase for workers and pensioners, who are also on the minimum monthly income scale.

However, he made it clear that “the Maduro administration has rigidities due to the Labor Law that makes salary increases extremely expensive for everyone, including the Venezuelan State.”

According to Oliveros, during the four months of the presidential campaign, the government will authorize more bonuses through the Patria System, “putting more money on the street and generating an important stimulus for these months.”

The economist warned that a salary increase “as a legal concept in the public and private sector” requires a discussion of change on the Labor Law.

Double-digit economic growth

The specialist explained that double-digit economic growth is expected in Venezuela this year, accompanied by greater dynamism in some sectors of the economy. But he specified that “due to the current complex context, a shorter electoral campaign and the threat of sanctions from the United States, it is estimated that this year’s economic performance will be limited.”

“We expect a moderate economic growth of 4 %, which for an economy like the Venezuelan one needs to be larger and more permanent, since this does not ensure that the majority of the population is reflected in the context of growth,” Oliveros specified.

A modification in the United States sanctions against Venezuela, maintaining the operation of companies like Chevron, could allow a growth of 4 %. If sanctions become more serious, growth would be close to zero.

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Asdrúbal Oliveros, a founding member of Ecoanalítica, pointed out this Sunday that the exchange rate at the end of 2023 could be higher than 60 bolivars per dollar.

Venezuela is at the top of the list of Latin American countries with the highest inflation rate. Added to this is the fact that the dollar continues to rise, faster than the devaluation of the bolivar.

The prices of goods and services in Venezuela are settled in dollar. “Inflation has increased significantly, going from 150 % to 400 % in one year, and it is expected to close at 228 %,” according to Olivares.

The specialist stressed that “in dollar terms, prices have increased 45 % in one year, which is much higher than in other countries.”

Companies find no other way out of the current contraction than to increase prices in dollars, since their production costs in the currency are higher.

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