The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) presented its economic growth projection for the region for the remainder of 2025 and 2026, with an increase of two-tenths of a percentage point.

Among the countries that will achieve the highest economic growth are Argentina (5 %), Panama (4.2 %), Paraguay (4 %), the Dominican Republic (3.7 %), Guatemala (3.6 %), and Costa Rica (3.5 %), according to the report presented this Tuesday.

On the other hand, the nations that will experience more moderate growth, ECLAC mentions Honduras (3.2 %), Nicaragua (3.1 %), Peru (3.1 %), Uruguay (2.8 %), Colombia (2.5 %), Chile (2.4 %), El Salvador (2.4 %), Brazil (2.3 %), and Venezuela (2 %).

The countries that are lagging the most include Bolivia (1.5 %), Ecuador (1.5 %), and Mexico (0.3 %). They are joined by Cuba and Haiti, where the economy will decline, according to the organization, to -1.5 % and -2.3 %.

According to the ECLAC report, “the countries of the region face the urgent need to accelerate the mobilization of resources for development in order to avoid another lost decade, in a complex and unfavorable international context.”

In this regard, it urges the nations of Latin America and the Caribbean to implement “a transformative fiscal policy, greater private investment, and renewed international cooperation, along with strong and agile institutions.”

M.Pino

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The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) released data on GDP per capita growth in Latin America and the Caribbean in the period 2014-2024, highlighting that it was almost zero.

According to the representative of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) Group in Peru, Tomás Lopes-Teixeira, in his presentation on October 10 for the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the region is affected by deep political polarization and lacks effective economic development policies.

However, the official mentioned a “general challenge and a historic opportunity that the region has to grow, despite its economic complexity and productive diversity.”

This challenge has to do with early investments in technology, indicating the relevance of having “entrepreneurial talent as a central axis of development, as well as informality, which represents a difficulty for SMEs to incorporate technology into their processes.”

According to Lopes-Teixeira, it is crucial to give the proper place to technological advances in the region today and to establish the technologies that will be used.

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The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) considers that the increase in indebtedness levels in the Latin American region requires an urgent transformation of the international financial architecture of sovereign debt, with the objective of to offer countries different options and alternatives that allow countries an “inclusive and sustainable” development.

This is clear from the report ‘Public debt and restrictions on development in Latin America and the Caribbean’, prepared by ECLAC and which was presented this Tuesday by the organization’s executive secretary, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, within the framework of the ‘ XXXV Regional Seminar on Fiscal Policy’.

This traditional meeting brings together authorities, specialists, civil society and academics every year to discuss the fiscal policy challenges faced by the countries of the region. On the second day of this Tuesday, the restrictions on growth and development that originate from public debt and their implications for fiscal space in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean were analyzed.

In this way, according to the report, both the increase in debt levels in the region and the macroeconomic and financial conditions, which are currently “complex”, press the need to expand financing instruments for Latin America.

As Salazar explained, the increase in debt service, especially because of the higher interest paid, forces countries to allocate more and more public resources to guarantee debt sustainability.

This translates into reductions in public investment and social spending, which generates “a vicious circle” since they are necessary to promote inclusive, sustained and sustainable growth, which allows not only stabilizing the path of the debt, but also move towards the fulfillment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

In this sense, the document calls for formulas to reduce borrowing costs, create a global financial safety net, and move towards a new institutional framework for sovereign debt restructuring.

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The economic growth projection for Venezuela this 2023 is estimated at 5 %, according to the recent report by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, ECLAC.

This Thursday, the agency updated the economic growth projections for the region, with a slight positive point for Venezuela, where the advance could be at 5 %, the highest rate of GDP growth for Central and South America.

Venezuela would be followed by Panama and the Dominican Republic, nations with a GDP growth projection of 4.6 %. Then there is Paraguay, with a projection of 4.2 %.

The ECLAC report also foresees that Argentina, Chile and Haiti will be the nations with the lowest economic growth this year, due to the contraction of their GDP of -0.2 %, -0.3 % and -0.7 % respectively.

📊Do you want to know how much your country will grow in 2023? Check the new economic growth projections delivered today by #ECLAC. #LAC region will mark a slowdown this year in a context of growing uncertainties. All the details in 👉 https://t.co/llDg1LLPf0 pic.twitter.com/oiEXFrnVWt

— ECLAC (@eclac_un) April 20, 2023

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The executive secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal), José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, has urged addressing the problem of labor informality in Latin America in order to improve the region’s productivity figures, which are “very low” compared to other geographical areas.

In a podcast of the International Labor Organization (ILO), Salazar has argued that there are no “magic solutions” to increase productivity, and it is necessary to focus on “structural” measures that entail a change in labor relations in Latin America.

Among the main obstacles to closing the gaps with developed countries, the Costa Rican has pointed out that there is a “serious problem” of human capital, caused by low levels of investment in training and education.

“You cannot participate in the productive paradigms of the 21st century without a modern workforce and without the skills demanded by today’s world, in which there is a clear commitment to digital transformation and technological advances,” he warned.

Latin America requires a new approach to the labor sector

Regarding the current situation in Latin America, Salazar has insisted that the business ecosystem, in which small and medium-sized companies mainly coexist, is marked by low productivity, although more and more companies are found to be “islands” of excellence, success and competitiveness. “However, they still represent a low representation within the economy of the countries of the region as a whole,” he lamented.

Thus, the ECLAC secretary has focused on the opportunities that the irruption of technology is generating in the region and has appealed to “bet” on new market niches in the services sector such as electromobility, the circular economy or the transition energetic.

“We must approach the issue of opportunities for productive development and rethink the industrialization of the service sector, as well as improve productivity in the public sector, which is inefficient,” he concluded.

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The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) warned that the Latin American region is facing a “serious social crisis” and that poverty levels by 2022 will be 32.1 % of the population. total, a figure higher than that recorded before the pandemic, in 2019.

At the presentation of the annual report “Social Panorama 2022”, ECLAC’s executive secretary, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, said that the economic situation is “extraordinarily harsh” due to the succession of several crises, which is causing a negative impact at the that “urgently” address. “You have to avoid the very real risk of having a lost generation in Latin America.”

Regarding the figures, Salazar highlighted that 201 million people are estimated to be at risk of poverty in 2022, which represents more than a third of the population of Latin America. “It is extremely worrying,” adding that people at risk of extreme poverty rise to 13.1 %, which is equivalent to a total of 82 million people. According to ECLAC, this data has not been seen in 25 years and represents “a setback” for the region.

These figures imply that an additional 15 million people will be in poverty compared to the pre-pandemic situation and that the number of people in extreme poverty will be 12 million higher than that recorded in 2019.

In addition, as in previous years, ECLAC explained that the incidence of poverty is higher in some population groups in the region: more than 45 % of the child and adolescent population lives in poverty and the poverty rate of women aged 20 to 59 is higher than that of men in all countries. Similarly, poverty is considerably higher in the indigenous or Afro-descendant population.

Among the reasons for this increase in poverty, ECLAC highlighted the slowdown in economic growth, the dynamics of the labor market and inflation. If we don’t act now, the agency has warned that there is the possibility of a long-term “social scar effect” that is very worrying.

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ECLAC indicated this Tuesday that the growth projection for Latin America and the Caribbean went from 1.8 to 2.7 %, which shows a slight increase. The agency gave details of GDP expansion on Tuesday when announcing forecasts for economic growth in the region.

During the presentation of the report, ECLAC made it clear that Latin America is still facing a series of crises that have undermined its growth. This, together with other factors, such as the increase in inflation on the world stage, the depreciation of the currency in various countries, and the application of economic sanctions, have resulted in a brake on growth.

Daniel Titelman, Director of Economic Development at ECLAC, has described the outlook as a “very difficult situation” because current conditions anchor the region to “a trend and a low growth trajectory that was already observed before the pandemic very strongly”.

Regarding the projected growth rate for South America, this is estimated at 2.6 %, where Venezuela tops the list with 10 %. For Central America, a growth of 4.1 % is expected, where Panama has 7 %. And, finally, for the Caribbean a growth of 10.2 % is expected, “although this subregion reaches 4.7 % if Guyana (52%) is excluded.”

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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Mexico experienced a growth of 5 % in 2021 compared to the previous year, according to preliminary estimates from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), falling below the forecasts of various organizations such as ECLAC which expected 5.8 %, the IMF that predicted 5.3 % and the World Bank that had established it at 5.7 %.

The boost in the Aztec economy last year would have been caused by a general growth in all activities, which rebounded after a 2020 of ‘red numbers’ as a result of the pandemic. Specifically, Mexico’s GDP contracted by 8.2 % in 2020.

Regarding growth in 2021, primary activities would have grown by 2.7 %, secondary by 6.8 % and tertiary by 4.2 %.

However, the timely GDP for the fourth quarter of the year would have registered a fall of 0.1 % with respect to the previous quarter, chaining two consecutive quarters of decreases.

The decline in the fourth quarter would be explained by the fall in tertiary or service activities, which registered -0.7 %, which would have weighed down the growth of 0.3 % and 0.4 % observed in primary and secondary activities.

In year-on-year terms, GDP for the fourth quarter would grow by 1 %, after increases of 4.8 % in primary activities, 1.6 % in secondary activities and 0.1 % in tertiary activities.

The Inegi will offer the definitive GDP data of the country for 2021 on February 25.

Source: dpa

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Latin America has added five million more people to the situation of extreme poverty throughout 2021, going from 81 to 86 million people, affected by the coronavirus pandemic and the social crises of the continent, according to the Economic Commission for America Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

The Latin American region is the “most vulnerable in the world in this pandemic” and in this period the rate of extreme poverty has increased from 13.1 to 13.8 %, which constitutes a “regression of 27 years” in this matter.

However, ECLAC stressed that in this same period the general poverty rate has been slightly reduced, which in this case has gone from 33 to 32.1 %, which in total figures translates into a decrease from 204 to 201 million people affected.

“Despite the economic recovery experienced in 2021, the estimated relative and absolute levels of poverty and extreme poverty have remained above those registered in 2019, reflecting the continuation of the social crisis,” the agency highlighted in its annual report Social Panorama of Latin America 2021.

Source: dpa

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Latin America and the Caribbean will decelerate their economic growth rate in 2022 to 2.1%, after having observed an average growth of 6.2% last year, according to new projections provided by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal) of the United Nations in its preliminary balance of the Latin American economies in 2022.

Among the main messages of the report are the deep uncertainty and the deepening of asymmetries between developed and developing countries.

Emerging economies will not resume growth paths to pre-pandemic levels until 2025, in contrast to advanced economies, which would regain pre-pandemic levels this year.

In 2021, 11 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean managed to regain pre-crisis GDP levels. In 2022, another three would be added, which would reach a total of 14 countries growing to prendemic levels of the 33 that make up the region.

ECLAC sees a scenario of lower growth and global trade for this year, as well as a less favorable external context, less fiscal space, inflationary pressures and episodes of exchange rate volatility. To all this is added a climate of low investment and productivity.

In this scenario, for the United Nations body it is “essential” to maintain growth based on fiscal and monetary policies.

The executive secretary of ECLAC, Alicia Bárcena, explained that the expected scenario requires that the reinforcement of growth “be a central element of the policies, while addressing inflationary pressures and macro-financial risks”.

For 2022, ECLAC projects an unemployment rate of 11.5% for women, slightly lower than the 11.8% recorded in 2021, but still much higher than the 9.5% existing before the pandemic in 2019, while for Unemployment for men would be 8% this year, almost the same as in 2021, but still well above the 6.8% recorded in 2019.

Source: dpa

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