According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) oil supply forecasts for 2025, the figures will be favorable.

Despite the impact on the sector of low demand from China, the agency “increased its forecast for growth in global oil demand for 2025 to 1.1 million barrels per day, from 990,000 bpd” in November.

This measure is in addition to the three-month delay, until April of this year, by OPEC+ in the start of the increase in oil production and extended by one year, until the end of 2026.

For 2025, the IEA’s outlook “points to an excess supply of 950,000 barrels of oil per day, even excluding the return to higher production quotas.”

M.Pino

Source: larepublica.co

(Reference image source: Maria Lupan on Unsplash)

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At a meeting on September 5, the member countries of the OPEC+ alliance agreed to postpone for two months the increase in oil supply scheduled for October.

According to a statement, the decision was made at a meeting of the sector ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.

“The eight participating countries have agreed to extend their additional voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day for two months, until the end of November 2024,” according to the statement.

The voluntary reduction in crude oil extraction was agreed several years ago with the aim of “stabilizing international prices of the so-called black gold, whose quotations are registering increasing levels of volatility due to geopolitical tensions and conflicts.”

The OPEC+ statement indicates that member countries “previously announced additional voluntary cuts in April and November 2023 (…), emphasizing their collective determination to ensure full compliance with voluntary production adjustments.”

By collective will, the organization establishes quotas for its members as part of an agreement, “which currently exempts Iran, Libya and Venezuela. In addition, several partners apply additional voluntary cuts.”

M.Pino

Source: Prensa Latina

(Reference image source: Documerica in Unsplash)

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Saudi Arabia and Russia announced the extension of their voluntary oil production cuts until the end of the year, which has had an immediate impact on crude oil prices. This decision seeks to stabilize prices and has taken the value of a barrel of Brent and WTI to their highest level since November.

Riyadh, the world’s main oil exporter, began a reduction in its production of one million barrels per day (mbd) in July. The Saudi Ministry of Energy confirmed that it will maintain this policy until December, as part of its commitment previously announced at the June meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia and with the participation of allies such as Russia.

Russia also said it will continue to voluntarily reduce its oil exports by 300,000 bd until the end of the year.

Following these announcements, crude oil prices have reached highs not seen since last November. At 3:45 p.m. GMT, a barrel of North Sea Brent for delivery in November increased 2.34% to $91.08, having reached $91.15 during the day. Meanwhile, the US benchmark, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel for October, recorded an increase of 2.84% to $87.98, reaching $88.07 during operations.

Saudi Arabia highlighted that the fundamental objective of this policy is to “support the stability and balance of the oil markets” and has announced that its production for the months of October, November and December will remain at around 9 million barrels per day, with the possibility of reviewing this strategy monthly to adjust production according to market conditions.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, in charge of the Energy portfolio, has stated that this measure seeks to “strengthen the precautionary measures taken by OPEC+ countries to maintain the stability and balance of the oil markets.” Both countries have stressed that production cuts will be reviewed monthly based on market conditions, which experts say allows Saudi Arabia to maintain control of the oil market.

K. Tovar

Source: Bancaynegocios

(Referential image source: Maria Lupan, Unsplash)

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