According to a study released this Thursday by the Brazilian entities Institute of Energy and Environment (Iema) and the Climate Observatory (OC), Brazil has the capacity to double biofuel production and consumption by 2050 by using degraded areas for agricultural expansion.

“The report, titled Biofuels in Brazil: Aligning the Energy Transition and Land Use for a Carbon-Negative Country,” states that the South American nation, which owns 60 percent of the Amazon rainforest, “can significantly expand the production of sugarcane ethanol, biodiesel, green diesel, and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).”

The document emphasizes that the country has the capacity to leverage production “by utilizing between 20 and 35 million hectares of currently degraded land, out of a total of 56 million hectares available for agricultural expansion.”

Regarding this, Felipe Barcellos e Silva, a researcher at IEMA, explained that the nation has approximately 100 million hectares of degraded pastures, equivalent to 12 % of the national territory. “Of that total, 56 million hectares could be strategically allocated to agricultural expansion, including bioenergy crops.”

The research is based on the analysis of six possible scenarios for expanding biofuel production through 2050, “with different combinations of raw materials and technologies, four of which could be developed within the 56 million hectare limit, without the need to open new natural areas.”

The report’s core products are ethanol, the sugarcane alcohol that is required in the gasoline mix for the entire Brazilian vehicle fleet, except for hybrid and electric vehicles.

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In its fight to reduce its carbon emissions to net-zero by 2050, the United Kingdom announced an investment of €26 billion over the next 25 years.

The announcement, published Thursday, October 3, in the Financial Times, states that “the projects called HyNet and East Coast Cluster aim to capture emissions from factories and power plants in the north of England and north Wales and store them on the seabeds of Liverpool Bay and the North Sea, respectively.”

The technology they will apply in this crucial project involves “capturing carbon dioxide as it is produced, compressing it and pumping it underground, sometimes into disused oil and gas deposits, to prevent it from being released into the atmosphere.”

In 2023, the world’s carbon capture capacity was 51 million tonnes, representing 0.14% of global emissions, according to the energy research organization BloombergNEF.

Regarding the United Kingdom, the European nation “emitted 384.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023, according to provisional figures from the Government, and it is not the first time that the country has shown interest in CCS projects.”

The Labour Government’s project is expected to capture between 20 and 30 million tonnes of carbon dioxide before 2030, as well as “providing peace of mind and providing certainty to heavy industry in its attempt to decarbonize.”

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In its annual report on world oil prospects until 2050, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced the extension of its forecasts for crude oil demand in the medium and long term.

The organization foresees an increase in consumption, “led by India, Africa and the Middle East,” which will boost demand for crude oil worldwide.

In the report entitled “World Oil Outlook 2024,” released on Tuesday, September 24 in Brazil, OPEC believes that “demand will grow for longer than other analyses, such as BP and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which consider that crude consumption will peak this decade.”

According to the projections, global oil demand would reach 118.9 million bpd in 2045; about 2.9 million bpd more than expected in the 2023 report.

But there is more. The OPEC report “extends its horizon to 2050 and foresees demand reaching 120.1 million bpd by then.” For its part, “BP expects oil consumption to peak in 2025 and fall to 75 million bpd in 2050. Exxon Mobil expects demand to remain above 100 million bpd until 2050, a level similar to the current one.”

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The projections of the Goldman Sachs company on the countries that could make up the top world powers for 2050 and 2075 include South American nations, taking into account various factors that affect the comprehensive development of communities, such as the investment that governments make in the economy, education, services, medical care, security and defense.

According to the Global Economy report published at the beginning of 2023, carried out by the leading firm in the area of ​​investment banking, and called “The road to 2075: size and opportunities of the capital market”, South America is a region of great potential, and Brazil (Colombia, Argentina and Peru are not overlooked) would occupy eighth place in the top ten along with the United States.

“The empire of a nation as an emerging market is consolidated from the purchasing power capitalized in the privatization of corporate assets,” the report states. In this sense, there is a South American nation that is currently positioned as a potential world power on a list of 104 countries until the year 2050 and also 2075.

Goldman Sachs concluded that “the power of the planet will be in the hands of 3 recognized giants in terms of the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of each one, while Brazil stands within the Top 10 along with the United States as the state of the subregion. which will grow considerably with a total of $8.7 billion.”

It shows that the country will be ranked eighth on the list and will also maintain that same position 25 years later. It will maintain its leadership “for 2050, 2050 and 2075, along with others that would be added as pleasant surprises as an emerging market.”

Brazil among the main economic powers in the world towards 2050 and 2075

The Goldman Sachs study prepared on June 8, 2023, includes data on countries that “universally would be world powers in the next almost 30 years, taking into account various factors such as potential GDP growth.”

Above Brazil, China would be in first place by both 2050 and 2075. The remaining eight nations would be:

Top Ten towards 2050

1- China

2- United States

3- India

4- Indonesia

5- Germany

6- Japan

7- United Kingdom

8- Brazil

9- France

10- Russia

Top Ten around 2075

1- China

2- India

3- United States

4- Indonesia

5- Nigeria

6- Pakistan

7- Egypt

8- Brazil

9- Germany

10- United Kingdom

The top five will be the world’s largest economies in 2050 as they “combine our GDP estimates with our long-term real exchange rate projections to project the real value of the US dollar for major economies over time.”

Among the criteria considered by Goldman Sachs for a nation like those listed above are “political leadership, economic growth, military strength, alliances with other nations and global influence that includes the ability to exercise authority and dominance over the rest of the territories.”

Given that the projections of the leading firm in the investment banking sector are long-term, which may raise doubts, it is appropriate to highlight that this is, as the firm indicates, an analytical work that “inevitably involves a considerable degree of risk and uncertainty”, where one of the advantages offered “is related to cyclical risk which, as an important source of short-term forecast errors, tends to reverse over time.”

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