ECLAC forecasts zero economic growth for LA and the Caribbean in 2020
The agency prepares the projections for the end of 2019 and all of 2020. The analysis highlights the crisis in the economies of Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina
Latin America and the Caribbean say goodbye to 2019 in the midst of economies deeply affected by a marked disparity in internal indicators and in 2020, which, according to ECLAC, will be the “period of least growth in 40 years“.
A poor scenario, despite the rebound in some countries in terms of export, unemployment reduction and improvements in the health sector. Public debt, in a large percentage of the region, has skyrocketed, public services are collapsed, and production is stagnant. According to the statistics of the agency, “the per capita income falls in more than 4% in the last six years, the period that the ECLAC takes as a reference, pressed down by Venezuela, Argentina and Brazil.”
Overcoming difficulties
By 2020, the forecast is of “zero” growth of most South American nations, with surprising exceptions such as Colombia and Guatemala. The macroeconomic estimates of the last five years appear to be met, including factors such as an increase in the informal economy, unemployment, a crisis in public and health services, a reduction in production and an increase in dependence on imports.
Alicia Bárcena, ECLAC Executive Secretary, affirms: “The region is going through a very bad time” and stresses that a “generalized and synchronized deceleration prevails with raw material prices down again in 2020″.
To avoid total collapse in LA and the Caribbean, the agency’s experts advocate the implementation of “an active fiscal policy, focused on the revival of the economy and the reduction of structural inequality.”
M.Pino
Source: ElPaís
