The director of Dinámica Venezuela, Eduardo Fortuny, indicated in the framework of the event “Transition in Venezuela” that the damages to the Venezuelan economy are structural and a proof of this are the figures published by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on May 28.
The specialist indicated that the data allowed to know that over the past five years there was a decline in exports of 72%, while imports fell by 68%. Likewise, the hyperinflationary figure that plagues the country and the amount of foreign currency that Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) delivered to the BCV was officially revealed.
Fortuny explained that the political change will not happen in a matter of weeks, but of months, and it will depend on which political actor manages to “unlock” the current scenario.
For the analyst, currently in Venezuela the so-called Chavismo has three “leaders” with different perspectives and interests. They are Nicolás Maduro, Diosdado Cabello and Vladimir Padrino López. Padrino has the power of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB), Diosdado is the president of the National Constituent Assembly (ANC in Spanish) and Maduro is looking to retake or concentrate the power he previously deposited on followers to stick himself on the power.
It should be noted that the Venezuelan leftwing party is seconded by Cuba, which according to Fortuny led to the harsh treatment that is internationally being given to the island and which is considered necessary for the Cuban government to abandon its influence on Venezuela.
On the other hand, the opposition counts on the leadership of Juan Guaidó, a figure that has progressively gained the trust of an important part of the Venezuelan population and of the international community.
On the way to transition
The director of Dinámica Venezuela indicated that the United States, Spain and the European Union are key actors to achieve political change in the country.
He stressed that the Venezuelan crisis can be resolved through negotiations and that the dialogue held in Norway can represent an “elegant exit” for the regime of Nicolás Maduro, who is currently looking to gain time to remain in power.
However, the change is imminent given that “Maduro does not have a future offer, while Guaidó has the Plan País“, which represents a solid project to achieve the support of Venezuelan society and the international community.
Support for the recovery
Eduardo Fortuny points out that with the action plan outlined in the Plan País, the transition process will receive financial aid and will come mainly from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), an organization that will initially lend 15 billion dollars and that will require the new government the establishment of direct subsidies during a certain period of time.
After a certain period of time, and with the fulfillment of new requirements, the State will have the opportunity to opt for a credit of the same amount, but in this case the subsidies must be eliminated, since the economy should present greater stability.
It is important to note that the elimination of aid is a subject of important analysis for the next government, given that over the past decade the State has applied this policy of continuous aid.
Strengthening de-dollarization process
Over the last few years, Venezuela has been hit by a hyperinflationary process that logically caused the loss of the purchasing power of the bolívar, triggering an informal dollarization process.
Given this situation, one of the fundamental points in the Plan País is to achieve a de-dollarization of the Venezuelan economy, given that this would facilitate the request of financing and the application of monetary policy in the future.
The director of Dinámica Venezuela stressed that in the face of a panorama of change and improvements both at a political and economic level, the “reward for having survived one of the strongest crises in history” is finding a sector without an offer, detecting changes in the patterns of consumption and attract investors willing to inject capital in Venezuela.